Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 27,116
2 Arizona 25,036
3 Florida 23,407
4 New York 21,740
5 Mississippi 21,317
6 New Jersey 20,848
7 Alabama 19,304
8 South Carolina 18,542
9 Rhode Island 18,389
10 District of Columbia 17,630
11 Georgia 17,555
12 Massachusetts 17,358
13 Nevada 17,180
14 Texas 16,581
15 Tennessee 16,298
16 Delaware 15,708
17 Maryland 15,382
18 Arkansas 15,339
19 Illinois 14,873
20 Iowa 14,844
21 Nebraska 14,210
22 Connecticut 14,087
23 California 13,483
24 Utah 13,249
25 Idaho 12,788
26 North Carolina 12,348
27 Virginia 11,135
28 Indiana 10,648
29 Wisconsin 10,519
30 South Dakota 10,363
31 Kansas 10,313
32 New Mexico 10,285
33 Minnesota 10,252
34 Oklahoma 10,249
35 Michigan 9,416
36 Pennsylvania 9,411
37 North Dakota 9,265
38 Missouri 9,111
39 Colorado 8,533
40 Ohio 8,238
41 Washington 8,193
42 Kentucky 7,570
43 Puerto Rico 6,153
44 Alaska 5,715
45 Wyoming 5,050
46 New Hampshire 4,941
47 Oregon 4,736
48 Montana 4,192
49 West Virginia 3,994
50 Maine 2,969
51 Vermont 2,301
52 Hawaii 1,935

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 444
2 Mississippi 323
3 Texas 316
4 Nevada 286
5 Georgia 277
6 Arkansas 274
7 Idaho 259
8 Florida 242
9 South Carolina 238
10 Tennessee 219
11 Alabama 218
12 Oklahoma 198
13 Kansas 195
14 Missouri 182
15 North Dakota 173
16 Arizona 172
17 Rhode Island 144
18 California 142
19 Kentucky 138
20 Nebraska 135
21 Utah 135
22 North Carolina 132
23 Puerto Rico 129
24 Wisconsin 129
25 Virginia 127
26 Illinois 125
27 Hawaii 122
28 Maryland 119
29 Delaware 118
30 Iowa 117
31 Minnesota 108
32 Indiana 106
33 Washington 97
34 Ohio 93
35 Alaska 90
36 Montana 89
37 New Mexico 87
38 South Dakota 80
39 District of Columbia 79
40 Colorado 77
41 Michigan 73
42 Oregon 69
43 Wyoming 66
44 Pennsylvania 63
45 Massachusetts 57
46 West Virginia 56
47 Connecticut 38
48 New Jersey 35
49 New York 33
50 New Hampshire 20
51 Maine 8
52 Vermont 5

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,783
2 New York 1,667
3 Massachusetts 1,256
4 Connecticut 1,244
5 Rhode Island 955
6 Louisiana 881
7 District of Columbia 831
8 Michigan 648
9 Illinois 613
10 Mississippi 606
11 Delaware 602
12 Maryland 584
13 Pennsylvania 571
14 Arizona 540
15 Indiana 446
16 Georgia 367
17 South Carolina 367
18 Florida 355
19 Alabama 345
20 Colorado 322
21 New Mexico 318
22 New Hampshire 307
23 Ohio 307
24 Minnesota 296
25 Nevada 289
26 Iowa 285
27 Texas 281
28 Virginia 266
29 California 249
30 Washington 223
31 Missouri 217
32 North Carolina 198
33 Nebraska 176
34 Kentucky 172
35 Arkansas 168
36 Wisconsin 168
37 Tennessee 165
38 South Dakota 154
39 Oklahoma 147
40 North Dakota 146
41 Kansas 127
42 Idaho 121
43 Utah 102
44 Maine 92
45 Vermont 91
46 Oregon 81
47 Puerto Rico 77
48 West Virginia 69
49 Montana 60
50 Wyoming 46
51 Alaska 31
52 Hawaii 18

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 11
2 Florida 8
3 Arizona 7
4 South Carolina 7
5 Texas 7
6 Louisiana 6
7 Nevada 6
8 Alabama 4
9 Arkansas 4
10 Georgia 4
11 California 3
12 Idaho 3
13 Tennessee 3
14 Iowa 2
15 New Mexico 2
16 North Carolina 2
17 Oklahoma 2
18 Virginia 2
19 Illinois 1
20 Indiana 1
21 Kansas 1
22 Maryland 1
23 Massachusetts 1
24 Missouri 1
25 Montana 1
26 North Dakota 1
27 Ohio 1
28 Puerto Rico 1
29 Rhode Island 1
30 Utah 1
31 Washington 1
32 West Virginia 1
33 Wisconsin 1
34 Alaska 0
35 Colorado 0
36 Connecticut 0
37 Delaware 0
38 District of Columbia 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Kentucky 0
41 Maine 0
42 Michigan 0
43 Minnesota 0
44 Nebraska 0
45 New Hampshire 0
46 New Jersey 0
47 New York 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Pennsylvania 0
50 South Dakota 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 139,667 1 99
Lake Tennessee 108,039 2 99
Lee Arkansas 100,485 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 95,276 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 91,830 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 31,689 129 95
Richland South Carolina 20,069 378 87
Orange California 12,007 880 71
York South Carolina 11,891 894 71
Pierce Washington 6,465 1631 48

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Galax city Virginia 3,781 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,111 5 99
Richland South Carolina 356 654 79
Davidson Tennessee 300 766 75
Orange California 209 1009 67
Pierce Washington 151 1264 59
York South Carolina 100 1544 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons